NEVS Archives - Swadeology

Saab Snippets – Time, Koenigsegg And Double Dipping

Time

It’s well past December 31, which is the time we all expected a decision from Mahindra as to whether or not they were going to invest in the ghost of Saab.

NEVS’s money was expected to run out by then and Mahindra were going to provide two tranches of funds IF the deal was going to go ahead – $5mil for January and $5mil for Febraury – to keep the ghost afloat in ‘reorganisation’ (bankruptcy protection) until the deal is finalised.

NEVS got a financial lifeline by selling tooling for spare parts to Orio, which explains why there was no urgency around the end of the year. The price paid in the deal wasn’t mentioned in the press release so the amount of time they’ve bought is unknown. It wouldn’t be too long, however.

When will Mahindra make a decision? It’d be nice to know.

——

Koenigsegg V4

My mate Tompa has been speaking with Christian Von Koenigsegg about engines. Specifically, the potential for cutting a Koenigsegg V8 in half and using the resulting V4 in a passenger vehicle.

You can read the article here, at a site I hadn’t seen before called Saab Tala.

The good news is that Christian believes it’s entirely possible. And considering that Christian knows more about cars and engineering than anyone else I’ve met, I’ll take that as given. In fact, not only is it possible, but Christian estimates that a half-Koenigsegg V4 could reliably produce plenty of power.

Quote from Christian:

If [you’re] looking at a 2 litre engine with 4 cylinders with a slightly smaller turbo to get a fantastic response, we are talking about 450 hp and 500 Nm on Unleaded 95 octane.

Sounds fascinating, doesn’t it?

There’s no bad news in this story, but the $64,000 questions remain unanswered – how much would it cost? And would that cost gel with the market(s) Mahindra would pursue with Saab if they got control of the company? Are they looking to take on the Audis and BMW’s of the world?

They’d better be. Because the engine won’t be cheap and consequently, the car won’t be cheap, either.

I don’t agree with Saabtala’s point of view about the BMW/Mini 1.6 engine being a mistake. I think it would have been a great engine for Saab, as it has been for Mini. The salient point is this: That BMW/Mini engine was considered to be a very expensive choice and it’s an engine that was used across several brands and made in the hundreds of thousands of units. How much, then, for a purpose-designed V4 from one of the most expensive carmakers in the world that’d be made in the tens of thousands?

Quality has its price. Your level of comfort with that price depends on the market you’re chasing.

It’s an interesting story and I know Tompa’s going to chase it a little more. I’m keen to see what he comes up with, if only from an engineering point of view. You can build whatever Saab you like if you’ve got the money, but you’ve got to be able to sell it to someone. That’ll be the hard part – whatever path they choose.

Side note: Tompa first met Christian when I asked via SU for someone in Sweden to provide a convertible Saab for Tompa’s wedding a few years ago. Christian was the only person to respond to the request, so Tom and Carola got to drive Halldora von Koenigsegg’s car on their wedding day. Result! 🙂

——

Double Dip

I remember the early days of Spyker’s ownership of Saab, with Victor Muller saying that the biggest threat to Saab’s future was a double-dip recession.

It’s interesting to ponder, then, what might have been if Spyker had access to finance and stuck it out until 2015.

Why?

Well, 2014 saw Western Europe record it’s first rise in new vehicle sales since 2009. And they’re forecast to grow in 2015, too. From Just Auto:

The US market also saw sales rise in 2014, but then the US market has been rising for a while. The US market’s recent low was also in 2009 with just 10.4 million vehicles sold. There were 16.5 million vehicles sold in 2014 and the last time the US market was that big was in 2006.

I wonder what would have happened, then, if there were no ban on Vladimir Antonov’s money (and no Antonov charges in Lithuania) and no supplier backlash in March 2011. What if all the new vehicle launches went ahead according to schedule and Saab kept making cars through 2011 and beyond? Would Saab have sold enough with the 9-4x, the new 9-5 and whatever would have happened with the 9-3 between then and now?

Such a prolonged slump was the economic situation that Victor feared the most in those early days. I wonder if ‘we’ could have survived it to prosper in 2015 and beyond?

Death In Trollhattan – Saab and Insolvency

In reaction to yesterday’s negative press about an appointment being made at bankruptcy court, NEVS managed to convince the petitioner to withdraw his claim. That’s good news.

NEVS’s anaemic PR division followed this up with a press release:

Nevs hereby clarify that the company is not insolvent. The company does not have enough liquid cash as today to pay all outstanding debt but Nevs’ assets are larger than its debt. Nevs today cannot say exactly when, but Nevs’ suppliers will get paid.

During the summer, the dialogues with the two major vehicle manufacturers have continued and developed in a positive direction. It is a thorough evaluation process that is still ongoing, and the discussions have not been finalized yet.

After the funding is secured, and that Nevs business plan is updated together with its new partners, Nevs will be able to make the decision on when the Trollhattan factory can resume its production.

The company whose representative filed a bankruptcy petition has informed Nevs today that they will withdraw the case after the information they have got regarding the ongoing dialogues.

A few quick thoughts on this:

“Nevs hereby clarify that the company is not insolvent” being followed by the words “The company does not have enough liquid cash as today to pay all outstanding debt….” is more than a little strange. It changes marginally from place to place, but in general terms, insolvency is where your debts outweigh your capacity to repay them as they fall due. It requires liquidity, not promises or claims about total assets. NEVS may claim solvency in this press release but such a claim has to stand up in court if/when they’re pressed to prove it.

Here’s a question someone in Sweden should be asking – Why doesn’t NEVS protect itself from creditors by going into Reorganisation, as Saab/SWAN did more than once a few years ago?

“Reorg”, you might remember, is the rough Swedish equivalent of a Chapter 7 11 bankruptcy in the US or ‘Voluntary Administration’ here in Australia, where the company gets some protection from creditors and can reorganise its business in order to maintain solvency and become profitable. The answer, I believe, is that if you go into Reorg you’ve got to prove to the court that you have a realistic chance of coming out of Reorg and trading successfully. NEVS’s ability to prove that would be severely limited because right now, they don’t have a finished product to sell nor a distribution network to sell that product into.

Consequently, I’ll take a stab and say that NEVS quite possibly exists right now only because of the good graces of its creditors. KJJ has already liquidated plenty of assets in China and elsewhere to keep the doors open this long and his capacity to keep doing this must be limited at this point.

And another question, on a slightly different matter….. Unless there’s going to be a three-party effort going on here – NEVS, DongFeng and Mahindra all working together – why is NEVS still in discussion with two potential partners?

This has been going on for months now and it will likely go on for many, many months more if NEVS still hasn’t got past the point of isolating one partner to deal with (if indeed one partner is the intended goal). If I were a creditor, I’d want a little more information as to exactly where things are at. I’d want a more realistic timeframe as to when I was going to get paid. If the goal is to secure a single partner/buyer/investor and NEVS is still sorting out who that might be, then I wouldn’t be planning on recovering my debt any time soon. Maybe the creditors have got that info from NEVS, but to the general market it looks like very little is happening in the way of progress – again, this is down to the anaemic PR department at NEVS.

We continue to wait and see.

Death In Trollhattan – Saab Bankruptcy Looming (again)

Scandinavian thrillers have been in vogue for the past 5 years or so, but this one’s becoming less of a thriller and more of a “why-dunnit?”. The conclusion is fairly well known to most objective observers; Saab is highly likely to be skewered and fairly soon. The only remaining questions are to do with any minor flips or twists along the way and the inevitable examination of why it happened.

My memory on the exact procedure from years ago is fuzzy, but hopefully I’m not putting anything out of context here.

Petition for Saab Bankruptcy

So what’s the latest?

Here’s the word from just-auto, which is a reliable source of news from my experience:

National Electric Vehicle Sweden says 250 production employees are at home following further struggles with short-term financing.

Staff only recently returned to the Saab-producing parent after summer holidays, but a petition filed with Swedish authorities from a supplier, today (12 August) has seen many without production work.

“The vacations ended this weekend, so when they came back we informed them [production staff] we still have things to do in the factory,” a NEVS spokesman told just-auto from Trollhattan in Western Sweden.

“So everyone comes back every Monday, but during the stop of production they stay at home and wait for new information.

“Those 250 people are being paid – they are at home with wages. The petition to the Court was today and they made a decision to have a negotiation on 8 September. It is the Court here in the area [of] Vanersborg.”

That’s a bankruptcy court they’re talking about.

So while NEVS continues to talk to two ‘prominent’ OEM’s about the company’s future – those two companies are widely believed to be Mahindra and Dongfeng – a supplier has had enough and petitioned the bankruptcy court to step in. The company that has filed this motion isn’t owed much (150,000SEK is not much at all in car company terms) but it doesn’t take much to get the ball rolling.

It should be noted that the filing was actually made by a debt-recovery company engaged by the supplier rather than the supplier itself. The CEO of the supplier company was surprised the debt recovery boys had taken this action but didn’t commit to withdrawing it. As we saw back in 2011, it only takes one to encourage a few more so even if the motion is withdrawn, others may follow.

The Likely Outcome

Back to NEVS/Saab:

The two companies [with which] we are in dialogue are fully aware of our situation. That it takes some time to complete a cooperation is a sign they are very serious.

I’ll bet they’re fully aware of the situation and I’m sure they’re quite serious. But I doubt they have the honourable intentions that NEVS is leading everyone to believe.

Trollhattan’s mayor, Paul Akerlund, remains ‘optimistic’ according to TTELA, but his statement sounds neutral-at-best, to me:

I am quite hopeful that there will be a solution in the pipeline that will be stable for the future.

And of course he’s optimistic. He might have been a former Saab guy and union guy in the past but in 2014, he’s the mayor. It’s his job to remain optimistic about his region.

Jonas Froberg from SvD has an informed and realistic view, I think:

A likely outcome is that the Dong Feng, or any other player, buy the rights to the [Phoenix] platform and that Kai Johan Jiang sells the factory to someone else – paying debts and accepting a dream shattered.

That’s where I think this is going, too.

No company is going to commit massive funds to Saab when it can let the inevitable happen and pick up the technology or property it wants for pennies on the dollar.

Why Has This Happened?

I’m far away from the action and like most of you, I’m left to read between the lines. From afar, however, I can say that any company looking to rejuvenate Saab needed two things: Plenty of money and a credible plan.

Victor Muller had one, but not the other. He had new models ready to go, an outstanding bunch of engineers that were already making progress on improving/replacing those models and a global sales pipeline that was hurting, but still alive. Things needed improvement, but that was known and it was being addressed. That’s as close to a credible plan as Saab has had in a long time. What he didn’t have was the money or the political support to get it.

NEVS – and this is only my opinion – had neither.

Converting to an all-electric fleet was always a massive gamble. Not only does it require massive resources, it needs the product to be an absolute groundbreaker in order to sell. A short history of Tesla will tell you that much.

NEVS had some good PowerPoint presentations in the beginning but time told us that the thoughts therein could not be turned into actions. The electric vehicle they promised was delayed to the point where they had to divert scarce resources into redeveloping a petrol version of the Saab 9-3 – a car they’d only ever be allowed to sell in tiny numbers because it didn’t meet regulations for selling in volume. The move to a petrol powered Saab 9-3 was the first sign that NEVS was in genuine trouble.

That’s the credible plan part.

We all know now that they don’t have the money, either. Kai Johan Jiang has made an honourable effort and continues to do so, but he couldn’t do it alone and he was let down by a Chinese partner that didn’t make good on its promise. I sincerely doubt NEVS’s long-term viability even if their Chinese partner had made good on their commitments, but they didn’t.

That’s my short theory as to why. I’ll leave it to people closer to the action to tell us the gory details in good time.

It Ain’t Over ’til It’s Over

There is a small, small chance that this could all come good. Either DongFeng or Mahindra might surprise everyone and come through with a deal that keeps a Saab presence in Trollhattan. And because I love the town and the factory, I sincerely hope that happens.

But the realist in me says we’re witnessing the final scene in a Scandinavian drama that we’ll all say would have been nice if it had a more un-Scandinavian outcome. A happy ending would be nice, for a change.

Roll credits.

Spyker Vs Saab, Victor Muller, Porsche-Porsche-Porsche and GM’s Recall

So the results from the Saab vs Spyker poll from last week – i.e……

Which car do you think we’ll see available for sale first?

The Spyker B6 Venator, or

An electric Saab?

…. were almost split down the middle. Spyker held a handy lead right from the get-go but the Saab pollsters chimed in later and the result evened out by the end.

Thanks for your participation. I’m very keen to see which one will actually be built first. Actually, I’m keen to see if either of them will be built at all.

——

The article is about Spyker, but it does touch on the Saab years:

He couldn’t help but describe the experience in Biblical terms. “It was hell on Earth,” he said, taking care to emphasize every word. “The years 2010 and 2011 can only be described as hell on earth. Dante’s Inferno. I gave everything humanly possible to try and save my company. And I think a little bit more than that. And I almost killed myself in the process. It was hell.”

I can vouch for that. I’ve never seen someone work harder and the price he paid in terms of his health and his family was excessive.

It’s a good read and yes, I’m still cheering for VM to make it work.

Saab, too.

——

18 new Saabs have been registered to private customers in Sweden this year.

As plenty of people have pointed out, the 9-3 was still a great car when it ceased production in 2011 and is, by all reports, still a good new car as made by NEVS today. But that’s according to the opinions of people who aren’t stumping up their own money to buy one. For those who are, the shortcomings attributable to the car’s age seem to be a stumbling block.

This path was always, always fraught with danger. A lack of engagement, a lack of feasible planning, a lack of sales and now the lack of a major investor have me very worried for our little Swedish brand.

Thanks to ctm for the sales info, via comments.

——

Would you like an update on the GM Recall that will make you shudder and laugh at the same time?

I thought so. There’s a slight language warning with this one. And it goes on a little too long, but it’s still worth a look.

—

Just another reason I’ll never buy a car designed and made by General Motors. (with the minor possible exception, one day, of a Saab 9-3 or 9-5 wagon).

——

Some car designs we like, and some we don’t. Designers DO usually get it right, however, a point that’s only emphasised when you see their early design attempts at a particular model.

For example, here’s how the Porsche 911 might have looked…..

And here’s the concept car that spawned the Spyker C8 Laviolette:

They’re always interesting to see, but thank goodness the designers kept working on them 🙂

——

And a little more Porsche, for those who like short films dedicated to old cars drifting in the snow….

—

The guy featured in this film is Jeff Zwart (and I love the smile on his face in the driving shots – it’s what driving old cars is all about). He’s made films and photos of a lot of exotic cars over the years, as well as driven cars hard in various events, including Pike’s Peak.

He recently released a book about the Porsche 917 and it shows off his photography skills almost as much as it shows off the car. Delicious.

——

And briefly, on my own Porsche shory…..

Parts have now arrived for my next major job – upgrading to M030 suspension. That’ll happen next month and I have a very special test drive planned to evaluate the changes 🙂

On Saab: Final Thoughts For A While… Probably… Maybe

[hr]

Prompted by a recent comments thread over at Saabs United and the level of detail at which people were examining things, I figured it was probably time for me to reflect on my own interest levels. Are the measures people apply to the company within normal parameters – myself included? Maybe it’s time to shut up, wait and then evaluate any new product from Saab when the company has one to show (and no, I don’t consider the 2014 Saab 9-3 to be a new product).

I’ve been critical of various parts of NEVS’s operation and my critical approach has been there for two important and inter-linked reasons. Firstly, I have friends and acquaintances who are very interested in anything Saab does, any product Saab makes. Are they getting full disclosure about the product and the company that’s making it? And second, I think it’s important to take such an approach when the company is under new and relatively inexperienced management.

The bottom line, with those criteria in mind:

Could I recommend to friends that they spend five-figures on a car from this company?
Is the car itself compelling enough to do so?

I think they are honest and fair questions. If I’m going to write anything about Saab, especially given my personal history when it comes to writing about the company, then I want to make sure I include as much information as possible and present it in the right context.

In the past, the first question was a no-brainer. Even under GM, Saab was Saab. There was a clear line of continuity from 1947 to 2011 in terms of geography, vehicle lines and management. There was continued innovation along a certain theme, commitment to a set of principles that governed vehicle technology and design, as well as a hope that any principles that we were watered down during the GM years could be restored.

That first question is no longer a no-brainer. There has been a clear and distinct change of management and the company aims to make vehicles that are clearly different from those in the past. They will use some historical components (out of economic necessity) but the aim to focus on electric vehicles is a clear shift that only some of Saab’s historic customer base can align with.

The second question – is the car compelling enough to recommend? – is one that we, as Saab fans, allowed ourselves a certain amount of flexibility with in the past. The 9-3 and 9-5 were definitely great cars in their heyday, but they lagged behind some of the competition due to material and equipment choices that were restricted by cost-cutting measures enforced by GM. The gap between these cars and the competition only expanded as time went on. We accepted and forgave these gaps in the product because the cars were still very good, and because they were Saabs.

The change of management and subsequent change of direction has meant a lesser willingness on the part of many to be so forgiving, however. And I think that’s quite fair.

Saab is no longer the company that it used to be. And that’s where I think that some of the commenters in the SU thread might have things wrong. It’s where I think I’ve probably been wrong at times, too.

We’re approaching matters related to Saab as if the company were undergoing what we’d all like to think is a subtle shift in the historical continuum. We’d all like to believe that historical changes in the ownership/management of the company were just subtle kinks in a straight line. If we’re honest, however, I think we’ll admit that the GM ‘kink’ was more like a dent, the Spyker ‘kink’ was a vastly under-funded effort to bring it back (to some degree) and this latest NEVS ‘kink’ is, in fact, almost a right-angle bend.

Quite a few Saab fans are evaluating NEVS’s progress with Saab – every itty-bitty detail, sometimes – according to their own wishes of what they’d like Saab to become, a view that is quite likely biased by historical perspective and experience. That’s all quite natural but I wonder if they’re torturing their automotive soul by doing so.

It’s fair to have aspirations and an opinion on what’s happening but that needs to be tempered by a key understanding that some are yet to encounter – you might not be Saab’s target market any more.

—

Be that as it may, most traditional Saab fans have an interest in what’s going on and just like everyone else, I’ve got a few thoughts to share.

The fans – Moving On

I find it a little strange that I have to put this in print, but…..

I’ve been damned by a few people in comments and I know others have, too. Our crime? Moving on and exploring other automotive interests.

My message to anyone contemplating the same – go for it. Moving on and experiencing other vehicle makes is not a crime. In fact, condemning someone for doing so is much closer to a crime than actually doing so. Saab is not a cult (though there are references made to “the cult of [brand]” made about many enthusiast followings, they should only ever be taken as light-hearted spin). Saab is a car company and for automotive enthusiasts, a hobby. Yes, the cars foster heightened levels of interest for many but being interested in Saab doesn’t mean that you’re bound to Saab only. Anyone who has a serious crack at you for doing so ought to re-examine their priorities.

So if you’ve got other automotive interests, feel free to check them out and get excited about them. You’re not turning your back on anyone and you’re not a traitor to anything. No-one lives, dies or is morally compromised by your alternative automotive interests. You’re just a person who’s interested in cars and that’s perfectly fine.

—

The fans – Staying Put

Just like moving on, staying put with Saab is fine, too. You’re not strange, you’re not a hero. You’re just a person who’s interested in cars – Saabs, especially – and that’s perfectly fine, too.

I imagine a lot of people are going to maintain their interest in historic Saabs and a smaller proportion will have an avid interest in both historic Saabs and NEVS Saabs together. I think all Saab fans will maintain an interest in what goes on with the Saab name, but there shouldn’t be any conflict between current and historic Saab fans.

—

The company – Public Relations and Marketing

I really hope that NEVS puts a PR machine together soon and starts to communicate its story more clearly to its target market, wherever and whatever that may be.

Of course, the story will depend on a few things:

How deeply linked they want to be to Saab’s history and traditional market, and
The products they intend to develop in the future.

Do they want to tie themselves to Saab’s history – make themselves part of that continuum? That draws a boundary around the historical part of the story.

The future product and the philosophies that underpin it will give direction to where the story is heading.

Their target market will influence the way in which the story is told.

NEVS will choose the story it wants to tell and in doing so, it needs to decide upon those things.

—

The company – Product

This is the car business. PR and marketing can do some of the work, but at the end of the day it’s all about the product. It’s down to how you design and execute.

The last 20 years have been more difficult for Saab fans (in product terms) than the 20 years that preceded. Yes, the product was more reliable and efficient, but it was less distinctive as a Saab. The 9-3 and 9-5 won a number of new Saab fans, but they also lost a number of traditional Saab fans and it’s fair to say that the GM era put a taint (not a stain) on the Saab brand in the eyes of much of the motoring press.

If NEVS want to reset, then they need to do something special with their first all-new vehicle when it finally arrives.

They need to build a killer product for which there are no contextual explanations needed, no excuses. They need to hit all mention of compromise out of the park.

NEVS and Saab can survive if they fall short of this lofty goal, but just imagine the positive impact they could have by blowing the negative aspects of the GM era out of the water with a truly killer product.

Car companies live and die by the quality of their product. It’s a measure of GM’s colossal success through the mid-20th century that they were able to hang on until 2009 before going into bankruptcy, given all the crap they built from the 70’s onwards. There are few companies in this modern era (and maybe none in the car industry today) that could withstand such a long run of dud products dominating their range.

NEVS’s survival will ultimately depend on the quality of their product and its ability to meet the needs of a market.

The survival of Saab fans will depend on whether or not they are a part of that market.

[hr]

With that off my chest, I’m going to sit and watch what’s going on at Saab.

I’m very interested in what they’re doing. I’m very hopeful for the future but I also have to acknowledge that my love for the Saab brand is based on its Swedish roots and philosophies. If Saab is extracted from Sweden, I know that my interest will shift dramatically and I offer no reservations and make no apologies for that.

NEVS/Saab need to get their story together. They need to get their product together.

Anything I could say about either of those two priorities right now would be little more than educated guesswork and aspiration. I’m a little tired of that (both from myself and from others) so I’m looking forward to sitting back and seeing what they do.

Some of the Saab fans that are getting all up tight about various aspects of the company’s operations might want to do the same.

The challenges that NEVS face have to be met by NEVS.

——

My 2 Cents On Saab Building Cars As Of Today

NEVS/Saab have done it – the first vehicles are rolling off the production line and NEVS even announced today that they’re embarking on a web-based sales model in order to sell some cars in Sweden!

All of that’s good news, but I’ve still got some questions, few of which seem to have been answered today. Some thoughts, too.

Let’s take a look at the car, first.

Continue reading My 2 Cents On Saab Building Cars As Of Today

Press Release – Saab Built A Car On Monday

Congratulations to the folks at NEVS/Saab in Trollhattan on the ceremonial start to their vehicle production endeavours. Plenty of questions and curiosities remain, but for the moment, things are on the move in Trollhattan and that’s good for the company, the employees and the town.

This presser was released hours ago and anyone who cares will have already read it, but I’ll put it up here for posterity. My 2 cents will be coming shortly….

——

Production of Saab 9-3 Aero Sedan has started in Trollhättan

National Electric Vehicle Sweden AB has started production of the Saab 9-3 Aero Sedan with a petrol engine. Sales are initially focused in China with a small number of vehicles being sold directly from Nevs to Swedish customers via the Nevs’ website

The car that is produced is a high-spec Saab 9-3 Aero Sedan with a 220 hp 2.0-liter turbo, a previously recognized high-performance engine of the Saab cars.

“I am very proud of the dedication and the focus that Nevs management and employees have demonstrated over the year that has passed since we became owners of the plant in Trollhättan, and who have made this possible. Swedish expertise along with Japanese technology around batteries and new lightweight materials and our Chinese group’s focus on green technology is our strength for the future”, said Kai Johan Jiang, Nevs founder and main owner.

“It is truly a complex mission to start a car production process which has been still for two and a half years. It is very pleasing that we have embarked on a journey where we want to and will make a difference with our partners and customers. Our electric car will be launched next year, and already today we can offer Saab cars with continued high, proven performance and quality”, said Nevs’ President Mattias Bergman.

Nevs’ customers will be offered a first class and engaging customer experience. They will also be offered the opportunity to come to the heart of the Saab car brand in Trollhättan to take delivery of their vehicles. While doing so, they will be invited to visit our highly efficient factory with experienced and competent workers and the Saab Car Museum where they can get a flavor of our brand and vehicles.

To ensure a solid ownership experience we intend to offer service and parts distribution in partnership with Orio AB (formerly known as Saab Automobile Parts AB).

In less than a year, the purchasing organization has built partnerships with the suppliers to the Saab 9-3. Nevs now has partnerships with all around 400 suppliers needed for the Sedan model. All in all the Nevs’ start of production engage around 2,400 companies globally through the suppliers.

“It’s been an intense year committed to ensuring Nevs’ start of production. I see our established partnerships as a trustful beginning of the long term and strategic relationships we want to build together with our subcontractors”, said Nevs’ Purchasing Director Per Svantesson .

To ensure our high quality and the supply chain functions, the production rate will be very modest, about ten cars a week initially, and then gradually the pace will be increased to meet customers’ demand.

The electric car based on the Saab 9-3 will be launched in spring 2014, with China as the first market. Nevs’ partner and part owner Qingdao has initially placed an order for a pilot fleet of 200 electric cars with delivery starting in spring 2014.

Sales in Sweden, via Nevs’ website, will start on Tuesday, December 10. The price is 279 000 SEK with manual transmission and 289 000 with automatic transmission. Additional specifications purchase and delivery conditions are presented when the sale starts.

Over time we will develop our customer base to expand into more markets where we see potential for growth and profitability.

Nevs’ vision is to shape mobility for a more sustainable future. Our aim is to be a front runner in the automotive industry, with focus on electric vehicles, where China is our initial main market. The pace of change towards cars powered by fossil free fuels will increase and China currently has the most ambitious efforts for electrification of the vehicle fleet.

On Saabs and Production

I’ve been meaning to write this for three or four days but never got around to it. Today’s news that NEVS have tied up the last of their suppliers makes it more poignant than ever, though, so here we go.

What I’d like to do is tie last week’s Saab news in with and earlier report as well as some whispers that have come through from Trollhattan.

Now, I should mention at the outset that this is not your normal Djup Strupery. In fact, it’s not Djup Strupery at all. The bits and pieces that I’ve heard are from people in the area and not directly involved with Saab/NEVS. It’s stuff they’ve heard around town, quite possibly from contacts who are involved with Saab/NEVS but that’s not known to me. Therefore, I don’t know the original sources but I do know the people who have mentioned it to me and they’re people that I trust.

I hope that all makes sense. Bottom line: the minor bits I’ll add to the narrative here are unconfirmed but fit the story quite well.

To our contextual sources for this story, then, the patches that will make up this Sino-Scandinavian quilt.

First, there’s my post from last week, suggesting that NEVS are about to run vehicles down the production line that will be test vehicles at first, before any vehicles are made for sale.

Second, there’s an article from Autocar, written by Hilton Holloway, that also talks about Saab’s manufacturing plans. The article was written way back in September, but rings true. Holloway, by the way, has a mind like a steel trap and is very good at what he does. You can take note of anything he writes because he is very well connected. My thanks to Terry9000K for linking to it in comments.

Third, there’s SU’s report from today saying that suppliers are in order as well as recent reports in the local paper about NEVS hiring more production workers.

Finally, there are the few very small whispers I’ve heard here and there since writing my last Saab article.

Let’s start with the first section of Holloway’s report in Autocar, which is the relevant part of his report for the purposes of this story.

The first new Saabs have been built since the Trollhättan production line ground to a halt in June 2011.

Two 9-3 saloons left the line around 15 months after the assets of Saab and the Swedish Trollhättan factory were acquired by the newly created – and Chinese-backed – National Electric Vehicle Sweden.

Although this 9-3 pre-production car is powered by the same 2.0-litre turbocharged petrol engines used in the pre-collapse series production cars, this is just a stop-gap operation.

Let’s stop there, briefly.

Yes, the 9-3s have 2-litre turbo petrol engines in them. In fact, from what I hear, at least the first couple of thousand new 9-3s will have turbocharged 2.litre engines as used in the Saab 9-3 before bankruptcy.

From what I’ve heard, NEVS bought around 2,000 of these engines from the bankruptcy estate so they’re what’s going in the car to start with.

The ramp-up to production is going to be pretty slow so those engines should last a little while. There shouldn’t be any real hassles with GM, either, as it’s old technology bought from the Saab estate, not sourced from GM.

Of course, NEVS are going to have to insert an engine of their own sooner or later. Nobody knows where that’s going to come from but I’ve seen the same hopeful comments saying “BMW”. I have two words – not likely. The 1.6 engines that Saab were going to buy from BMW were super expensive. They would have been suitable for a new, premium release like the Phoenix Saab 9-3 that Saab were going to build, but they’re far too costly for a re-hashed Epsilon-based Saab 9-3 that’s going to be very close to being a teenager before it’s even built.

Back to Holloway….

According to senior sources at Trollhättan, NEVS will build a batch of petrol-powered 9-3s in order to de-bug the production and build process, before the company switches to building the promised all-electric version of the 9-3. The initial 9-3 production run has been pre-sold to three Chinese government agencies.

So those cars are the ones I was talking about last week – test vehicles to establish the production line and test the car.

The news that the old 2.0 litre engine is being used means a bit less testing is required, but any new parts will still need proving IMHO (well, let’s just say you wouldn’t want to buy them unproven, would you?)

The bit about selling these early cars to the Chinese gels with what I’ve heard, too. I don’t know how accurate it is, but one friend in Trolltown has actually mentioned that they’re intended for use as Taxis in China.

So what do I think this all means?

It’s good news that NEVS have their suppliers sorted. In fact, that’s probably the most prominent news here because nothing happens if you haven’t got reliable parts supply in place.
NEVS will start regular small scale production later this month. The first vehicles should be test vehicles both to validate the factory and the cars themselves.
The first vehicles to be built for sale will, in all likelihood, be shipped to China where they’ve been bought by the government to be used for purposes less noble than a keen Saab fan would like to see.
There’s still no word on what engine a more consumer-oriented Saab 9-3 from NEVS will be built with and that’s an important part of the puzzle. There’s no word on where it will be sold, or when. Holloway’s article seems to indicate that NEVS will get an electric 9-3 out (based on the old platform, I assume) by the end of 2014. My guess is that that might be the first car with the Saab name on it that someone might be able to buy outside of China.
But that’s just a guess.

Again, I make no claims of accuracy in all this. I’m just tying up some loose ends in a bid to temper people’s expectations. I don’t think you’ll be able to buy a new Saab 9-3 Aero any time soon, people.

I’d still like to hear more of what they’re doing, though. If the story’s worth telling, then tell it.

——

Some Thoughts on Material From Saabs United

I’m in two minds about whether to write this post. On one hand, it can be regarded as bad form to analyse the contents of a website that you have had some sort of relationship with, however distant that relationship is now. On the other hand, experience tells me that I might have something to contribute on matters raised in a recent SU article and the ensuing comments section – and that it’s something worth talking about.

The article in questions is The last Saab is no longer the last Saab – and I think we could all really benefit from some further discussion.

So…….

Issue #1 – What’s this post really about?

The article starts off with some thoughts about the vehicle purchased by Saabs United fans (me included) and stored at the Saab Museum. That’s interesting but it’s not why this article was written.

The key to this post is in this quote:

We’ve been asked many times what will happen to DJA880 now that the last Saab is no longer the last Saab. In fact, 30 new cars have been built since NEVS start up the production line again, and within a couple of weeks a new significant car will be rolling off the production line in Trollhättan.

NEVS have built 30 cars on the production line at Stallbacka but for some reason a car built in the next few weeks is going to be significant.

I’ll give you two options:

They’re going to start building NEVS’s face-lifted Saab 9-3 to sell.
They’re going to start building NEVS’s face-lifted Saab 9-3 for the first time.

The difference is subtle, I’ll grant you, but it’s there.

I don’t think it’ll be the first option (cars to sell) for reasons I’ll get to in a moment.

I think that if you tie in the rare bits of Saab news from the last few months, the more-than-reasonable conclusion to be drawn is that NEVS have finally got a full compliment of parts suppliers on board and will finally run a Saab 9-3 down the production line that is “GM-free”.

If that’s the case, then this will be the first production session that tests the fitment and operation of the new parts. This exercise will go a long way in answering whether the production line will work in a reliable fashion with these new parts. Additionally, it will quite possibly mark the moment where vehicles are made for extensive field testing as a complete unit.

——

I should mention at this point that I have absolutely no first-hand insight as to what’s going on in Trollhattan. I don’t have any active sources there and what you see above is primarily me interpreting what’s been written on SU (by Tim, who very definitely does have active sources in Trollhattan) and seasoning my interpretation with my limited experience writing about and eventually working at Saab (brief as that assignment was).

Back to the post…..

——

So why do I think it’s important to interpret this development in this particular way? Why do I think it’s test vehicles rather than production vehicles for sale?

The one thing I’ve banged on about with regard to Saab this year is that making a vehicle with a whole bunch of new parts will not be a walk in the park. NEVS have talked as recently as a few months ago about the fact that they were still working on getting all parts suppliers on board. Those parts need to be tested and that’s a time consuming business.

If NEVS are as business-minded and prudent as everyone says they are then they’ll need to know beyond doubt that those parts are safe and that they will not cause a whole bunch of warranty problems six months after vehicles go on sale. There hasn’t been time to do that yet, not when you’re talking about a bunch of new parts suppliers.

From comments to the SU post, some people are interpreting the ‘significant car’ news to be the start of production-for-sale. Here’s one:

So the face lifted 9-3 will be out in two weeks, that is cool.

Well, no. I don’t think it will.

And if it is, then I don’t think it’s a face-lifted 9-3 that any sane person would want to buy.

Here’s a video I made for Inside Saab, which shows durability testing of the rear tailgate for the Saab 9-5 SportCombi.

Now, bear in mind that that’s the level of quality testing that people would expect for the whole car. That sort of testing takes a while.

But the 9-3 isn’t a new car, you say?

No, it’s not a new car. But it’s using a whole bunch of new parts and those parts have to be tested to make sure that they’re up to the job. Do you really want to put your family into a car that’s had only some of its parts tested properly in a previous incarnation of the vehicle?

I’ve written on this site before that I’d be very surprised if NEVS have a car that’s ready for sale, and sales channels that are ready for public exposure, by the final quarter of 2014. I’ll stick to that.

This need for testing is the primary reason for my conservatism and, to be honest, I’d be a little bit scared for Saab if the car came out any sooner without some sort of detailed explanatory story as to what they’ve done in terms of quality assurance, crash testing, etc.

If this is indeed the first test-run of a car built wholly with NEVS-sourced parts then that’s fantastic news and a significant moment in the development cycle. Let the testing begin!

——

Issue #2 – Are NEVS doing the PR job they should be?

This is the other major topic that was discussed in comments at SU and as my name was invoked in the conversation, I think it’s OK to mention it and give my perspective here.

A commenter named Angelo is prone to complaining ad nauseum about NEVS’s lack of public relations activities. I’m inclined to agree with him for the most part, even if he’d drive me batty as an editor with his repetitiveness if I was still looking after the site. As he was doing his thing on this post, Tim replied with…

I will never do anything to damage Saab, which has been a key rule of SU since Swade started the website. I will continue to abide by that rule!

Well….. actually…….no. Yes and no, to be fair.

I never went out of my way to ‘damage’ Saab, it’s true. But my first concern was always my readership and I didn’t mind if Saab had a few uncomfortable moments as a result. I think that if you’re running an independent website, that’s a pretty important thing to keep in mind.

For example, I can remember being the recipient of some rather stern words from a member of Saab’s PR department when I first visited Trollhattan in 2007. At issue were pictures of the face-lifted Saab 9-3 that was officially unveiled just a few days later at the Saab Festival. I’d received some advance pictures that were not authorised, which showed a test vehicle parked at an old industrial site in the area. I published them on Trollhattan Saab. It caused some people serious discomfort that the car had been seen so plainly, so far in advance of its unveiling.

I didn’t like to strain relations with the company but the website was only of value if it gave readers something extra on top of what the company could give them. The value I created by doing spyshots and other Djup Strupe material is what built the readership and – here’s the key – made the website valuable for the company.

Trollhattan Saab and Saabs United were valuable to Saab because the sites did things that Saab itself couldn’t do in the PR climate of the time. I may have trodden on a few toes at times (hence JAJ’s description of me as “that guy”) but TS and SU built up enthusiasm for the brand because the sites were a) honest, and b) gave an insight that the company either couldn’t, or wouldn’t give.

So what of NEVS’s PR efforts?

They say they’ll talk when the time is right. Personally speaking, I think the time has been well past ‘right’ for a while now.

They don’t have to be out there every day with every little thing that’s going on at the factory, but they could definitely have started the build-up to recreating the Saab story with their particular slant on it. This pre-supposes that NEVS are interested in trading on Saab’s past, of course, but if they’re not interested in tying the company’s future to its past in some fashion, then why negotiate the use of the Saab name?

We had an ‘Inside Saab’ concept in Saab’s marketing department with a whole bunch of films to share and other themes to spin off when the time was right. We only got to release a handful of those films before we had to hold off because production wasn’t re-starting.

I think the ‘Inside Saab’ theme would be perfect to tell to the story of Saab’s re-birth.

You don’t have to be flashy. You don’t have to over-promise. You don’t even have to interact much at this stage. Just tell the story and let people get a feel for the development cadence and what’s going on, what they can expect from Saab.

Right now, those that still care are operating in a vacuum; expecting the world and getting very little in return.

NEVS don’t have to do much, but they should be doing something.

——

Saab 9-5 is now called Senova

I don’t want to sound down about the future, but let’s just say the present ain’t looking all that great.

BAIC bought technology from Saab just as the company was being sold by GM in 2009. It’s four years later and their vehicle based on the Saab 9-5 – called the Senova – has just been tested by Autocar magazine in England. You would hope that with a solid working base and 4 years to remodel that things would be reasonably good. And parts of it are. Plenty of it wasn’t, though.

In short:

The drivetrain shows its age.
The equipment levels are great, but….
The materials are terrible.

That drivetrain is basically the same 2.0 and 2.3 litre turbo engines that Saab used in the 9-5 back in the old days. From 1997 onwards.

It was a great engine to drive in the Saab 9-5 back in the day, but running through the same old yesteryear 5-speed auto transmission, Autocar finds it to be a little bit dated. With the 9-5’s old competition offering 7+ speeds as standard nowadays, I’m not surprised.

Electronics are cheap and ubiquitous these days so it’s no surprise that the Senova comes well equipped with touchscreen infotainment and powered everything. They’ve even kept a large number of Saab cues including active head restraints and central ignition (using a button instead of a key, of course).

It’s the materials that get the biggest panning:

Internally, BAIC have taken a top-down approach: the further you go down, the worse the quality gets. On the top of the dashboard the soft plastics are fine, but once you get down to the central console much cheaper materials are in play and the door pockets are downright flimsy. Never mind competing with European executives, this doesn’t even come up to the standards of an Avensis.

The materials and the lack of driving excitement are the biggest concerns. BAIC has had four years with this car and those familiar with the 9-5 know that they had a pretty decent base to start with. That a car company, even a Chinese car company, couldn’t take that base and improve it to any measurable degree after 4 years doesn’t bode well for those of us looking forward to see what the next Saab-based vehicle will be like.

That car’s due to come along next year, after only a couple of years development time rather than four years. It’ll roll off the production lines in Trollhattan and have a Saab name attached to it. Thankfully NEVS have got more experienced people on board than BAIC, so hopefully their 9-3 based car will fare better than BAIC’s first effort with the 9-5.

It’ll need to. NEVS can’t afford a first review like this one from Autocar.

—